AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.90 · now $41.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AAP has typically landed between $33.21 and $49.55 — a range of −20.7% to +18.3% from the issuance price $41.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AAP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.21worst · -20.7%$49.55best · +18.3%
  • now $41.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.31 (-1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.78–$44.84
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.21–$49.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-05-10−49.5%−49.5%+0.0%
2023-05-09−48.4%−48.4%+0.2%
2023-05-08−47.9%−47.9%+0.0%
3 best
2025-05-09+72.5%+0.0%+72.5%
2025-05-07+67.4%−1.5%+68.1%
2025-05-06+66.4%−1.8%+67.6%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.1%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.2%
n=19
May
42%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.1%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
−2.6%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.3%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.9%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$63$382025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $391K — Soler Kristen L2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $391K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Soler Kristen L — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-13Soler Kristen LofficerSale7,662 @ $51.00$391K−24.9% of holding−10.8%−8.7%23,165Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-20Hand JasonofficerSale948 @ $48.52$46K−8.8% of holding+27.6%−29.9%9,876Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-27Grimsland Ryan PofficerPurchase200 @ $40.70$8K+0.4% of holding−15.7%+35.6%56,499Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11OKelly Shane MdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $36.79$55K+0.8% of holding−7.3%+45.9%183,121Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06LEE EUGENE I JRdirectorPurchase14,640 @ $34.15$500K+75.3% of holding+15.6%+68.2%34,070Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-04Soler Kristen LofficerPurchase1,000 @ $35.33$35K+6.2% of holding+15.6%+60.7%17,205Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05Finley Tammy MofficerSale1,276 @ $44.06$56K−5.0% of holding+8.1%+23.7%24,266Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

148 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24LEE EUGENE I JRdirectorAward / grant38890,199Form 4
2026-07-24Ferraro John FrancisdirectorAward / grant11927,207Form 4
2026-07-24Bailo Carla JeandirectorAward / grant6515,327Form 4
2026-07-24Hilson Joan MdirectorAward / grant5812,997Form 4
2026-07-24Seboldt Thomas WdirectorAward / grant4515,903Form 4
2026-07-24Smith Gregory LdirectorAward / grant439,720Form 4
2026-07-24Windom BrentdirectorAward / grant439,720Form 4
2026-07-24Seboldt Thomas WdirectorAward / grant2715,858Form 4
2026-07-24Johnson Richard AdirectorAward / grant194,182Form 4
2026-07-24JAMISON CYNTHIA TdirectorAward / grant173,703Form 4
2026-06-27Starnes BruceofficerWithheld for tax3,00342,909Form 4
2026-06-12Soler Kristen LofficerWithheld for tax75931,311Form 4
2026-06-02Johnson Richard AdirectorAward / grant4,1634,163Form 4
2026-06-02JAMISON CYNTHIA TdirectorAward / grant3,6863,686Form 4
2026-06-02Hilson Joan MdirectorAward / grant3,20912,939Form 4
2026-06-02Ferraro John FrancisdirectorAward / grant3,20927,088Form 4
2026-06-02Bailo Carla JeandirectorAward / grant3,20915,262Form 4
2026-06-02Smith Gregory LdirectorAward / grant3,2099,676Form 4
2026-06-02Windom BrentdirectorAward / grant3,2099,676Form 4
2026-06-02LEE EUGENE I JRdirectorAward / grant3,20987,209Form 4
2026-06-02Seboldt Thomas WdirectorAward / grant3,20915,744Form 4
2026-06-02LEE EUGENE I JRdirectorAward / grant2,60289,811Form 4
2026-06-02Seboldt Thomas WdirectorAward / grant8715,831Form 4
2026-04-24LEE EUGENE I JRdirectorAward / grant34684,000Form 4
2026-04-24Ferraro John FrancisdirectorAward / grant10023,879Form 4
2026-04-24Bailo Carla JeandirectorAward / grant4912,053Form 4
2026-04-24Hilson Joan MdirectorAward / grant429,730Form 4
2026-04-24Seboldt Thomas WdirectorAward / grant2912,535Form 4
2026-04-24Windom BrentdirectorAward / grant286,467Form 4
2026-04-24Smith Gregory LdirectorAward / grant286,467Form 4
2026-04-24Seboldt Thomas WdirectorAward / grant2512,506Form 4
2026-03-14OKelly Shane MdirectorWithheld for tax2,959214,707Form 4
2026-03-14Grimsland Ryan PofficerWithheld for tax72965,991Form 4
2026-03-14Soler Kristen LofficerWithheld for tax25432,070Form 4
2026-03-06Soler Kristen LofficerWithheld for tax4532,324Form 4
2026-03-04OKelly Shane MdirectorWithheld for tax13,609217,666Form 4
2026-03-04Grimsland Ryan PofficerWithheld for tax2,92666,720Form 4
2026-03-04Starnes BruceofficerWithheld for tax1,64545,912Form 4
2026-03-04Soler Kristen LofficerWithheld for tax1,37132,369Form 4
2026-03-04Vining JeffreyofficerWithheld for tax82320,687Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-10-182023-09-15$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-10-182023-09-15$100–250K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-07-192023-06-05$100–250K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-07-192023-06-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-07-112023-06-29$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-06-222023-05-12$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-06-222023-05-12$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-06-122023-05-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-05-082023-04-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-04-072023-03-14$1–15K
Michael C. BurgessHousepurchase2023-03-142023-02-24$15–50K
Michael C. BurgessHousesale2023-03-142023-02-24$1–15K
Michael C. BurgessHousepurchase2023-03-032023-02-24$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.