Issued 2026-09-16 at $75.56 · now $75.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AAON has typically landed between $61.51 and $92.09 — a range of −18.6% to +21.9% from the issuance price $75.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($75.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AAON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $75.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $75.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $76.73 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $69.91–$83.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $61.51–$92.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-01-30 | −36.9% | −36.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-31 | −35.3% | −36.8% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-21 | −32.9% | −32.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-29 | +62.1% | +0.0% | +64.5% |
| 2026-04-28 | +61.5% | −1.8% | +61.5% |
| 2026-05-04 | +61.3% | +0.0% | +61.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
70%
+1.8%
n=20
Mar
70%
+4.1%
n=20
Apr
55%
+0.7%
n=20
May
65%
+4.8%
n=20
Jun
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Jul
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.2%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.7%
n=20
Oct
70%
+4.0%
n=20
Nov
95%
+9.8%
n=20
Dec
60%
+0.1%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Stewart David Raymond | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $74.66 | $75K | +33.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Shaub Matthew | officer | Purchase | 457 @ $76.42 | $35K | +17.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,136 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 4,230 @ $143.42 | $607K | −100.0% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 19,000 @ $140.20 | $2.7M | −55.5% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,252 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 21,173 @ $140.34 | $3.0M | −38.2% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wichman Gordon Douglas | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $140.39 | $421K | −21.4% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Sale | 2,084 @ $138.30 | $288K | −13.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Sale | 1,069 @ $138.31 | $148K | −7.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 19,081 @ $137.60 | $2.6M | −35.8% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Tobolski Matthew Joseph | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $135.37 | $1.1M | −6.5% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 26,018 @ $134.07 | $3.5M | −43.2% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 5,253 @ $134.05 | $704K | −13.3% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 9,672 @ $136.59 | $1.3M | −25.9% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 400 @ $100.27 | $40K | −1.4% of holding | +47.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,681 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 21,914 @ $100.21 | $2.2M | −44.2% of holding | +36.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,681 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 7,292 @ $100.10 | $730K | −20.9% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 2,287 @ $100.11 | $229K | −7.6% of holding | +34.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Sale | 2,840 @ $90.00 | $256K | −18.3% of holding | +4.3% | −23.5% | 12,662 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Sale | 1,554 @ $90.00 | $140K | −10.9% of holding | +4.3% | −23.5% | 12,662 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Sale | 831 @ $90.00 | $75K | −6.2% of holding | +4.3% | −23.5% | 12,662 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Wakefield Stephen E | officer | Purchase | 4,141 @ $77.59 | $321K | +37.4% of holding | +11.2% | +57.3% | 15,212 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Wakefield Stephen E | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $80.85 | $81K | +8.5% of holding | +11.2% | +57.3% | 12,730 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Wakefield Stephen E | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $82.25 | $82K | +9.3% of holding | −0.3% | +46.5% | 11,730 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 2,786 @ $105.14 | $293K | −9.6% of holding | −23.3% | +24.3% | 26,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 767 @ $105.14 | $81K | −2.8% of holding | −23.3% | +24.3% | 26,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 20,976 @ $105.21 | $2.2M | −44.3% of holding | −20.0% | +24.9% | 26,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 5,770 @ $105.21 | $607K | −18.0% of holding | −20.0% | +24.9% | 26,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Shaub Matthew | officer | Purchase | 428 @ $81.70 | $35K | +31.6% of holding | +22.9% | −3.0% | 1,783 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 9,150 @ $81.09 | $742K | −27.1% of holding | +17.5% | +4.6% | 24,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 200 @ $81.12 | $16K | −0.8% of holding | +17.5% | +4.6% | 24,396 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Eason Christopher Douglas | officer | Sale | 7,231 @ $85.07 | $615K | −57.7% of holding | +5.8% | +10.3% | 5,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Eason Christopher Douglas | officer | Sale | 2,142 @ $85.12 | $182K | −28.8% of holding | +5.8% | +10.3% | 5,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Eason Christopher Douglas | officer | Sale | 1,185 @ $85.06 | $101K | −18.3% of holding | +5.8% | +10.3% | 5,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Eason Christopher Douglas | officer | Sale | 596 @ $85.08 | $51K | −10.1% of holding | +5.8% | +10.3% | 5,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Eason Christopher Douglas | officer | Sale | 549 @ $85.08 | $47K | −9.4% of holding | +5.8% | +10.3% | 5,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Eason Christopher Douglas | officer | Sale | 300 @ $85.08 | $26K | −5.4% of holding | +5.8% | +10.3% | 5,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Wichman Gordon Douglas | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $104.47 | $2.1M | −69.6% of holding | −31.5% | −25.3% | 8,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Wichman Gordon Douglas | officer | Sale | 1,302 @ $104.58 | $136K | −12.9% of holding | −31.5% | −25.3% | 8,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Wichman Gordon Douglas | officer | Sale | 3,975 @ $105.75 | $420K | −31.2% of holding | −32.9% | −25.9% | 8,754 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 8,357 @ $98.66 | $825K | −24.0% of holding | −11.5% | −18.5% | 26,491 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-07 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 28,866 @ $95.57 | $2.8M | −45.3% of holding | −5.7% | −23.6% | 34,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 24,277 @ $98.29 | $2.4M | −27.6% of holding | −8.8% | −29.0% | 63,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Fields Gary D | director | Sale | 12,912 @ $98.04 | $1.3M | −12.8% of holding | −8.8% | −29.0% | 87,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Stewart David Raymond | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $80.86 | $81K | +50.0% of holding | +2.3% | −12.4% | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Wakefield Stephen E | officer | Sale | 5,362 @ $130.99 | $702K | −54.1% of holding | +1.9% | −44.7% | 4,558 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $138.00 | $690K | −22.4% of holding | −8.6% | −42.0% | 17,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
212 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | ASBJORNSON NORMAN H | director | Gift | 100,000 | 11,482,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jermain Patrick John | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 1,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 1,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | ASBJORNSON NORMAN H | director | Gift | 88,000 | 1,201,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | ASBJORNSON NORMAN H | director | Gift | 101,441 | 11,582,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fields Gary D | director | Option exercise | 21,173 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fields Gary D | director | Option exercise | 21,173 | 55,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Wichman Gordon Douglas | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 21,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Wichman Gordon Douglas | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 13,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Option exercise | 2,084 | 15,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Option exercise | 2,084 | 1,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Option exercise | 1,069 | 2,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Option exercise | 1,069 | 14,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Fields Gary D | director | Option exercise | 19,081 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Fields Gary D | director | Option exercise | 19,081 | 53,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Tobolski Matthew Joseph | director | Withheld for tax | 467 | 17,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fields Gary D | director | Option exercise | 26,018 | 60,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fields Gary D | director | Option exercise | 26,018 | 21,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fields Gary D | director | Option exercise | 5,253 | 39,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fields Gary D | director | Option exercise | 5,253 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | ASBJORNSON NORMAN H | director | Award / grant | 1,290 | 98,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Kouplen Angela | director | Award / grant | 1,290 | 39,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Lawhorn Caron A | director | Award / grant | 1,290 | 18,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | LeClair Stephen O | director | Award / grant | 1,290 | 31,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | McElroy A H II | director | Award / grant | 1,290 | 75,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Ware Bruce | director | Award / grant | 1,290 | 9,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Stewart David Raymond | director | Award / grant | 1,290 | 9,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 9,672 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 9,672 | 37,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 9,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 28,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 21,914 | 49,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 21,914 | 10,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 7,292 | 31,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 7,292 | 34,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 2,287 | 29,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thompson Rebecca | officer | Option exercise | 2,287 | 39,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Cheung Chung Kin | officer | Award / grant | 15,507 | 17,541 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Option exercise | 2,840 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Kidwell Casey | officer | Option exercise | 2,840 | 15,502 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.