AAMIAcadian Asset ManagementFinancial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $89.21 · now $89.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AAMI has typically landed between $76.53 and $105.80 — a range of −14.2% to +18.6% from the issuance price $89.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,980 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-10-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($89.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AAMI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $89.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$76.53worst · -14.2%$105.8best · +18.6%
  • now $89.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $90.62 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.24–$96.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $76.53–$105.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,980 windows spanning 2014-10-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−64.4%−64.4%+2.9%
2020-02-20−57.9%−65.3%+0.5%
2020-02-19−57.2%−64.0%+4.2%
3 best
2020-04-20+57.4%+0.0%+61.6%
2020-04-17+56.2%−3.4%+56.2%
2020-04-21+55.9%+0.0%+57.1%

2,980 overlapping windows · 2014-10-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
42%
−0.1%
n=12
Feb
67%
+3.5%
n=12
Mar
75%
+0.7%
n=12
Apr
67%
+3.5%
n=12
May
58%
+0.5%
n=12
Jun
50%
+3.7%
n=12
Jul
75%
+6.5%
n=12
Aug
33%
−1.6%
n=12
Sep
33%
−2.0%
n=12
Oct
55%
+2.3%
n=11
Nov
83%
+7.9%
n=12
Dec
58%
−1.2%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$97$422026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $23K — Wiater Christina2026-08-03: 3 insider sales, $2.2M — Wiater Christina …2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $146.8M — PAULSON & CO. INC.2026-05-04: 2 insider sales, $6.7M — Hart Richard Jonathan …2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Chersi Robert J2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $496K — Trebbi Barbara2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $57.6M — PAULSON & CO. INC.2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $57.6M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $6.7M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $146.8M2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $2.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Wiater Christina — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wiater Christina — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wiater Christina — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wiater Christina — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradeother PAULSON & CO. INC. — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Hart Richard Jonathan — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hart Richard Jonathan — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chersi Robert J — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Trebbi Barbara — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeother PAULSON & CO. INC. — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Wiater ChristinaofficerSale244 @ $92.36$23K−100.0% of holding−1.3%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Wiater ChristinaofficerSale17,389 @ $87.49$1.5M−98.6% of holding−0.2%not yet — horizon still open247Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Wiater ChristinaofficerSale7,978 @ $86.61$691K−31.1% of holding−0.2%not yet — horizon still open17,636Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Wiater ChristinaofficerSale3 @ $88.11$264−1.2% of holding−0.2%not yet — horizon still open244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-17PAULSON & CO. INC.otherSale1,900,000 @ $77.25$146.8M−24.5% of holding−1.1%not yet — horizon still open5,843,282Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-04Hart Richard JonathanofficerSale88,792 @ $66.87$5.9M−51.1% of holding+1.9%not yet — horizon still open85,071Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Hart Richard JonathanofficerSale11,208 @ $67.73$759K−13.2% of holding+1.9%not yet — horizon still open73,863Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Chersi Robert JdirectorSale28,753 @ $51.30$1.5M−43.5% of holding+1.6%+67.0%37,384Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10Trebbi BarbaradirectorSale9,691 @ $51.22$496K−21.3% of holding+1.2%+66.9%35,771Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03PAULSON & CO. INC.otherSale1,206,839 @ $47.69$57.6M−13.5% of holding−12.1%+0.0%7,743,282Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15Trebbi BarbaradirectorGift10,26010,260Form 4
2026-06-15Trebbi BarbaradirectorGift10,26028,797Form 4
2026-06-12Trebbi BarbaradirectorAward / grant1,2881,288Form 4
2026-06-12Paulson JohndirectorAward / grant2,2532,253Form 4
2026-06-12Chersi Robert JdirectorAward / grant1,2881,288Form 4
2026-05-14Chersi Robert JdirectorOption exercise3,2860Form 4
2026-05-14Paulson JohndirectorOption exercise5,7500Form 4
2026-05-14Trebbi BarbaradirectorOption exercise3,2860Form 4
2026-05-14Trebbi BarbaradirectorOption exercise3,28639,057Form 4
2026-05-14Chersi Robert JdirectorOption exercise3,2863,286Form 4
2026-05-14Paulson JohndirectorOption exercise5,75029,510Form 4
2026-02-15Hart Richard JonathanofficerWithheld for tax4,618173,863Form 4
2026-02-15Wiater ChristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,52125,614Form 4
2026-02-15Wiater ChristinaofficerOption exercise5,18017,246Form 4
2026-02-15Hart Richard JonathanofficerOption exercise9,550178,481Form 4
2026-02-15Hart Richard JonathanofficerOption exercise9,55038,345Form 4
2026-02-15Wiater ChristinaofficerOption exercise5,18027,135Form 4
2026-02-14Hart Richard JonathanofficerWithheld for tax2,782168,931Form 4
2026-02-14Wiater ChristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,17621,955Form 4
2026-02-14Wiater ChristinaofficerOption exercise4,00623,131Form 4
2026-02-14Wiater ChristinaofficerOption exercise4,00622,426Form 4
2026-02-14Hart Richard JonathanofficerOption exercise5,75547,895Form 4
2026-02-14Hart Richard JonathanofficerOption exercise5,755171,713Form 4
2026-02-13Hart Richard JonathanofficerAward / grant21,60253,650Form 4
2026-02-13Young KellydirectorAward / grant48,74848,748Form 4
2026-02-13Hynes ScottofficerAward / grant4,8884,888Form 4
2026-02-13Wiater ChristinaofficerAward / grant5,40726,432Form 4
2025-06-10Chersi Robert JdirectorGift27,9860Form 4
2025-06-10Chersi Robert JdirectorGift27,98666,137Form 4
2025-05-14Paulson JohndirectorAward / grant5,7505,750Form 4
2025-05-14Trebbi BarbaradirectorAward / grant3,2863,286Form 4
2025-05-14Chersi Robert JdirectorAward / grant3,2863,286Form 4
2025-05-13Paulson JohndirectorOption exercise7,76423,760Form 4
2025-05-13Chersi Robert JdirectorOption exercise4,43727,986Form 4
2025-05-13Chersi Robert JdirectorOption exercise4,4370Form 4
2025-05-13Trebbi BarbaradirectorOption exercise4,43745,462Form 4
2025-05-13Trebbi BarbaradirectorOption exercise4,4370Form 4
2025-05-13Paulson JohndirectorOption exercise7,7640Form 4
2025-02-15Hart Richard JonathanofficerWithheld for tax5,944165,958Form 4
2025-02-15Wiater ChristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,52119,125Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.