AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.70 · now $12.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AAL has typically landed between $10.19 and $15.33 — a range of −19.8% to +20.7% from the issuance price $12.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.19worst · -19.8%$15.33best · +20.7%
  • now $12.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.6 (-0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.34–$13.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.19–$15.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−65.8%−65.8%+0.0%
2020-02-19−63.7%−63.7%+0.6%
2020-02-20−63.6%−63.9%+0.0%
3 best
2008-07-15+417.5%+0.0%+433.1%
2008-07-14+391.7%−7.8%+391.7%
2008-07-16+295.7%+0.0%+319.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+5.0%
n=18
Feb
42%
−2.4%
n=19
Mar
42%
−4.9%
n=19
Apr
37%
+1.1%
n=19
May
58%
−0.6%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.4%
n=19
Jul
53%
+5.1%
n=19
Aug
37%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.6%
n=19
Oct
67%
+9.2%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.1%
n=18
Dec
78%
+6.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$18$102026-07-31: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Owens Angela, Johnson Stephen L2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $458K — Johnson Stephen L2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $450K — Johnson Stephen L2026-07-28: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Owens Angela, Johnson Stephen L2026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $440K — Johnson Stephen L2026-06-25: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Seymour David2026-06-24: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Seymour David2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $410K — Seymour David2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $938K — Seymour David2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-07: 7 open-market sales, $3.5M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Owens Angela — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed same dayofficer Johnson Stephen L — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Johnson Stephen L — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Johnson Stephen L — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed same dayofficer Owens Angela — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Johnson Stephen L — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Johnson Stephen L — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Seymour David — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Seymour David — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Seymour David — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Seymour David — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Owens AngelaofficerSale40,077 @ $15.26$612K−18.3% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open178,799Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-31Johnson Stephen LofficerSale30,000 @ $15.29$459K−1.5% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open1,938,357Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-30Johnson Stephen LofficerSale30,000 @ $15.26$458K−1.5% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open1,968,357Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-29Johnson Stephen LofficerSale30,000 @ $15.01$450K−1.5% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open1,998,357Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-28Owens AngelaofficerSale39,168 @ $15.34$601K−15.2% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open218,876Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Johnson Stephen LofficerSale30,000 @ $15.16$455K−1.5% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open2,028,357Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27Johnson Stephen LofficerSale30,000 @ $14.67$440K−1.4% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open2,058,357Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-25Seymour DavidofficerSale56,456 @ $18.00$1.0M−5.5% of holding−20.2%not yet — horizon still open969,033Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Seymour DavidofficerSale69,343 @ $17.00$1.2M−6.3% of holding−17.4%not yet — horizon still open1,025,489Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-16Seymour DavidofficerSale25,595 @ $16.01$410K−2.7% of holding−6.1%−10.9%932,196Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09Seymour DavidofficerSale62,507 @ $15.01$938K−6.0% of holding+4.5%−11.2%979,776Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-27Owens AngelaofficerSale51,906 @ $17.15$890K−31.6% of holding−10.9%−40.2%112,412Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-27Isom Robert D JrdirectorSale102,441 @ $17.21$1.8M−3.3% of holding−4.3%−37.9%2,967,984Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15DIETRICH JOHN WdirectorAward / grant8,6768,676Form 4
2026-07-12Seymour DavidofficerWithheld for tax4,801964,232Form 4
2026-06-10Farmer Kathryn MdirectorAward / grant11,17724,739Form 4
2026-06-10Ungerleider Howard IdirectorAward / grant11,17736,578Form 4
2026-06-10Reynal VicentedirectorAward / grant11,17756,655Form 4
2026-06-10HART MATTHEW JdirectorAward / grant11,177114,071Form 4
2026-06-10KRONICK SUSAN DdirectorAward / grant11,17790,230Form 4
2026-06-10KRONICK SUSAN DdirectorAward / grant11,17790,230Form 4
2026-06-10CAHILL JOHN TdirectorAward / grant11,17724,739Form 4
2026-06-10STEENLAND DOUGLAS MdirectorAward / grant11,17767,383Form 4
2026-06-10Brown Adriane MdirectorAward / grant11,17766,058Form 4
2026-06-10Dillon Mary NdirectorAward / grant11,17714,208Form 4
2026-06-10Nesbitt Martin H.directorAward / grant11,17790,230Form 4
2026-06-10Smith Gregory DdirectorAward / grant26,080124,798Form 4
2026-05-02Seymour DavidofficerWithheld for tax40,8651,094,832Form 4
2026-05-02May Devon EofficerWithheld for tax33,721985,023Form 4
2026-05-02Owens AngelaofficerWithheld for tax8,097258,044Form 4
2026-05-01Richmond Anthony J.officerWithheld for tax70,5981,003,542Form 4
2026-03-24Dillon Mary NdirectorAward / grant3,0313,031Form 4
2026-02-27Isom Robert D JrdirectorWithheld for tax48,4293,794,279Form 4
2026-02-20Johnson Stephen LofficerWithheld for tax17,0782,088,357Form 4
2026-02-20May Devon EofficerWithheld for tax8,3501,018,744Form 4
2026-02-20Seymour DavidofficerWithheld for tax8,3501,135,697Form 4
2026-02-20Owens AngelaofficerWithheld for tax7,808266,141Form 4
2026-02-18Isom Robert D JrdirectorWithheld for tax45,8843,842,708Form 4
2026-02-18Johnson Stephen LofficerWithheld for tax24,4492,105,435Form 4
2026-02-18Owens AngelaofficerWithheld for tax11,849273,949Form 4
2026-02-18Seymour DavidofficerWithheld for tax9,0551,144,047Form 4
2026-02-18May Devon EofficerWithheld for tax8,6701,027,094Form 4
2026-02-17Richmond Anthony J.officerAward / grant241,6381,074,140Form 4
2026-02-17Isom Robert D JrdirectorAward / grant781,2503,888,592Form 4
2026-02-17Pieper NathanielofficerAward / grant216,722239,210Form 4
2026-02-17Seymour DavidofficerAward / grant321,7561,153,102Form 4
2026-02-17Johnson Stephen LofficerAward / grant442,7082,129,884Form 4
2026-02-17May Devon EofficerAward / grant311,0821,035,764Form 4
2026-02-17Owens AngelaofficerAward / grant100,625285,798Form 4
2025-12-12Seymour DavidofficerWithheld for tax21,985957,791Form 4
2025-12-12May Devon EofficerWithheld for tax11,547825,532Form 4
2025-12-12Owens AngelaofficerWithheld for tax4,601185,173Form 4
2025-11-03Pieper NathanielofficerAward / grant22,48822,488Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-09$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-16$100–250K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-07-092025-06-16$50–100K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-07-092025-06-17$50–100K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-06-132025-05-02$250–500K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-01$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-22$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-02$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-04$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-07$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-18$15–50K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-04-142025-03-20$100–250K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-04-142025-03-31$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.