Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.69 · now $12.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AADX has typically landed between $7.55 and $16.27 — a range of −40.5% to +28.2% from the issuance price $12.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
52 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-06-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AADX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.17 (-12.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.55–$12.8
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.55–$16.27
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-10 | −44.5% | −44.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | −42.5% | −43.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-04 | +25.2% | −5.7% | +28.2% |
| 2026-06-03 | +21.4% | −7.7% | +25.5% |
| 2026-06-05 | +18.9% | +0.0% | +36.0% |
52 overlapping windows · 2026-06-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | McRae Jeffrey L. | officer | Purchase | 25,000 @ $20.00 | $500K | ownership Δ n/a | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Katzman James C | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $20.00 | $500K | +588.2% of holding | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,250 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Lynch Susan D | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $20.00 | $160K | ownership Δ n/a | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Goldstein Scott (NMN) | director | Purchase | 500 @ $20.00 | $10K | +11.8% of holding | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,750 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
3 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | AA&D Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 11,456,787 | 126,786,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Goldstein Scott (NMN) | director | Award / grant | 4,250 | 4,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Katzman James C | director | Award / grant | 4,250 | 4,250 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.