AAAlcoa Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.26 · now $46.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AA has typically landed between $36.42 and $58.14 — a range of −21.3% to +25.7% from the issuance price $46.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$36.42worst · -21.3%$58.14best · +25.7%
  • now $46.26 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $46.29 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.5–$51.08
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.42–$58.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−66.0%−66.0%+0.0%
2020-02-19−65.1%−65.6%+0.0%
2020-02-21−64.8%−66.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-04+79.9%+0.0%+79.9%
2020-05-07+73.2%−11.1%+73.2%
2020-05-15+73.2%+0.0%+94.8%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−3.6%
n=18
Feb
47%
+3.0%
n=19
Mar
47%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
42%
+1.5%
n=19
May
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Jun
37%
−3.0%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.1%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.6%
n=19
Sep
58%
−2.1%
n=19
Oct
56%
−0.7%
n=18
Nov
67%
+7.2%
n=18
Dec
67%
+7.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$84$292026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $36K — Bacchi Renato2026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $791K — Jones Tammi A2026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $305K — Hastings Andrew2026-07-22: 1 insider sale, $215K — Reed Matthew T2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $215K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bacchi Renato — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jones Tammi A — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hastings Andrew — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reed Matthew T — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Bacchi RenatoofficerSale700 @ $51.02$36K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open74,930Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-27Jones Tammi AofficerSale15,628 @ $50.60$791K−28.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open39,819Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Hastings AndrewofficerSale6,000 @ $50.90$305K−13.8% of holding−8.1%not yet — horizon still open37,532Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22Reed Matthew TofficerSale4,600 @ $46.82$215K−6.0% of holding+9.6%not yet — horizon still open71,770Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-08Gorman Thomas JosephdirectorAward / grant2,53223,327Form 4
2026-05-08HUGHES JAMES ALTONdirectorAward / grant2,53253,630Form 4
2026-05-08de Oliveira Marques RobertodirectorAward / grant2,53215,800Form 4
2026-05-08Roberts Carol LdirectorAward / grant2,53253,630Form 4
2026-05-08Roberts Jackson PrincedirectorAward / grant2,53219,672Form 4
2026-05-08Citrino Mary AnnedirectorAward / grant2,53256,665Form 4
2026-05-08Field AlistairdirectorAward / grant2,53212,199Form 4
2026-05-08Fiore PasqualedirectorAward / grant2,53240,761Form 4
2026-05-08Galovich BriandirectorAward / grant2,5322,532Form 4
2026-05-08Bevan John AdirectorAward / grant2,53212,199Form 4
2026-04-15Olson Emily M.officerAward / grant8,7608,760Form 4
2026-02-23Oplinger William FdirectorWithheld for tax3,801333,877Form 4
2026-02-23Beerman Molly S.officerWithheld for tax3,040119,461Form 4
2026-02-23Bacchi RenatoofficerWithheld for tax2,11375,630Form 4
2026-02-23Jones Tammi AofficerWithheld for tax2,05955,411Form 4
2026-02-23Jones Tammi AofficerWithheld for tax76211,952Form 4
2026-02-23Jones Tammi AofficerAward / grant7755,488Form 4
2026-02-23Jones Tammi AofficerWithheld for tax4155,447Form 4
2026-02-23Jones Tammi AofficerAward / grant2911,981Form 4
2026-02-23Jones Tammi AofficerWithheld for tax1611,965Form 4
2026-02-23Jones Tammi AofficerAward / grant3,88457,470Form 4
2026-02-23Bacchi RenatoofficerAward / grant4,85877,743Form 4
2026-02-23Jones Tammi AofficerAward / grant1,46312,714Form 4
2026-02-23Oplinger William FdirectorAward / grant8,740337,678Form 4
2026-02-23Beerman Molly S.officerAward / grant6,990122,501Form 4
2026-01-29Oplinger William FdirectorWithheld for tax14,840328,938Form 4
2026-01-29Beerman Molly S.officerWithheld for tax3,940115,511Form 4
2026-01-29Jones Tammi AofficerWithheld for tax2,81953,570Form 4
2026-01-29Bacchi RenatoofficerWithheld for tax2,29072,885Form 4
2026-01-29Hastings AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,73643,532Form 4
2026-01-29Jones Tammi AofficerWithheld for tax68311,248Form 4
2026-01-29Henry ReneeofficerWithheld for tax36612,981Form 4
2026-01-29Jones Tammi AofficerAward / grant3553,605Form 4
2026-01-29Jones Tammi AofficerWithheld for tax1953,586Form 4
2026-01-29Jones Tammi AofficerAward / grant811,256Form 4
2026-01-29Jones Tammi AofficerWithheld for tax511,251Form 4
2026-01-28Reed Matthew TofficerAward / grant17,34072,900Form 4
2026-01-28Hastings AndrewofficerAward / grant9,34043,398Form 4
2026-01-28Hastings AndrewofficerAward / grant1,87045,268Form 4
2026-01-28Henry ReneeofficerAward / grant1,77013,347Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-02-112026-01-13$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132024-10-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-07-072025-06-16$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-02-112025-01-09$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-12-162024-11-19$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-12-162024-11-19$15–50K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2024-11-082022-08-12$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHouseexchange2024-11-082022-08-12$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2024-11-082022-04-05$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHouseexchange2024-11-082022-04-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-09-162024-08-26$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.