Issued 2026-08-12 at $63504.66 · now $63390.79 (2026-08-13, −0.2% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-12 close, BTCUSD has typically landed between $50702.15 and $79341.76 — a range of −20.2% to +24.9% from the issuance price $63504.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,269 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-08-01 – 2026-07-13 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-12 issuance close ($63504.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
What is Bitcoin? iThe crypto-majors record — distribution ranges only; crypto's monthly direction has not proven calibratable, so no directional probability is published.
Bitcoin is a decentralized network that records transfers of its native asset, BTC, on a public blockchain secured by proof-of-work mining. Its protocol caps the total supply at 21 million coins. It was the first cryptocurrency, launched in 2009.
Reference facts about the network, as of 2026-08-11 — not a view on the asset.
Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-08-13 — factual context, not a signal.
Where BTC has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-12 close of $63,505 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $63,391 (-0.2%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $63,766 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $58,011–$69,520
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50,702–$79,342
Ranges only — no directional probability for crypto.iCrypto's monthly direction has not proven calibratable in our validation harness (2026-07-25). See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-01-06 | −59.6% | −59.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −52.7% | −52.7% | +1.0% |
| 2018-01-07 | −52.5% | −57.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2017-11-12 | +201.2% | +0.0% | +201.2% |
| 2017-11-11 | +166.1% | −7.3% | +174.0% |
| 2017-11-13 | +155.4% | +0.0% | +171.3% |
3,270 overlapping windows · 2017-08-01 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Logged immutably 2026-08-13 06:06:40 UTC; scored 2026-09-11.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Earnings & context analysis
These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.